Early voting opened Monday in Ada, Canyon, Kootenai and Bonneville counties, and voters there are walking into a U.S. Senate race that two recent polls describe in very different terms.
One survey, done for Republican Sen. Jim Risch's campaign at the end of September, shows the three-term incumbent leading independent Todd Achilles by 25 points. Another, taken about two weeks earlier by a firm that says it polled independently of the campaigns, shows Achilles ahead by 11. That is a 36-point gap between two readings of the same race.
Monday's openings covered 21 counties in all. Sixteen others, among them Bannock, Twin Falls and Nez Perce, began early voting on Oct. 13, and Power County started a day later. Election Day is Nov. 3.
Two polls, two very different races
The newer poll comes from Peak Insights, a Republican firm whose surveys in this race have been sponsored by the Risch campaign. It reached 500 likely voters from Sept. 28 to 30 and found Risch at 49%, Achilles at 24%, independent Natalie Fleming at 3% and Libertarian Matt Loesby at 2%. Another 15% were undecided, and the margin of error was 4 points either way. In mid-August, the same firm had Risch up 52% to 18%.
The other poll comes from Advanced Targeting Research, which surveyed 700 registered voters in mid-September. In a two-way matchup, it found Achilles leading Risch 50% to 39%. With Loesby added, Achilles still led, 46% to 39%, with Loesby at 5%. Neither version included Fleming, whose name will also be on the ballot. The firm says it ran the survey on its own and that no candidate in the race commissioned it.
The two polls were not built the same way. A likely-voter sample tries to screen for people who will actually turn out, while a registered-voter sample casts a wider net. A head-to-head question also drops names that voters will see on the real ballot.
Bill Fay, who spent years as an aide to the late Republican Sen. Steve Symms, pointed to the newer Peak Insights numbers and told Newsmax the Advanced Targeting result "was all baloney."
Earlier polls sponsored by candidates also pointed in different directions. An August survey by The Bullfinch Group, sponsored by the Achilles campaign, had Achilles ahead 38% to 33% one-on-one but trailing 34% to 30% when Loesby was included. A late-July Change Research poll sponsored by John Stegner, the independent candidate for governor, had Risch ahead 45% to 21%.
What the ratings and the money show
National forecasters are not treating Idaho as a battleground. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race Solid Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball calls it Safe Republican. A Silver Bulletin polling average built on surveys through mid-August had Risch ahead by about 19 points. Idaho has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974.
Risch also has the bigger bank account. Federal Election Commission figures through Sept. 30 show his campaign with about $2.84 million in cash on hand, nearly eight times the roughly $369,000 Achilles reported. Since the start of 2025, Risch has raised about $3.8 million and Achilles about $1.6 million.
Risch, 83, is seeking a fourth term and chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was twice elected Ada County prosecuting attorney and twice elected lieutenant governor, and he served as governor in 2006 after Dirk Kempthorne left to become U.S. interior secretary. He won his last general election, in 2020, with 62.6% of the vote and took 67.3% against three challengers in this year's Republican primary. Asked about his age this summer, he called the Senate "a high-energy job" and said he is "incredibly active."
The independent on the other side of the ballot
Achilles, 58, grew up on a family farm, served as an Army tank commander and later spent 25 years in technology, including at T-Mobile and Hewlett-Packard. He has said he was a registered Republican until he switched parties so Gov. Brad Little could appoint him in February 2024 to a Boise-area House seat left open by a Democrat. He won a full term as a Democrat that November and became the House minority caucus chair, then resigned from the Legislature in June 2025, registered as unaffiliated and launched his Senate run days later.
Democratic nominee David Roth ended his campaign on July 28, a move the Risch campaign's pollster described as an effort to help Achilles. No Democrat appears on the Senate ballot.
Achilles' platform calls for term limits on Congress and the Supreme Court, a ban on members of Congress trading individual stocks and a mandatory retirement age of 72 for lawmakers. His campaign site says he would oppose any new federal ban on firearms or magazines. The NRA Political Victory Fund grades Achilles an F and Risch an A+.
His supporters include the American Federation of Teachers, the National Education Association, the Communications Workers of America, the Idaho AFL-CIO and Conservation Voters for Idaho, and the Forward Party has endorsed him. Fay added that Achilles has spoken at events tied to Sen. Bernie Sanders.
In the Idaho House, Achilles supported the 2025 income tax cut in House Bill 40. He opposed three other bills that passed the House: the parental choice tax credit in House Bill 93, the ban on mask mandates in House Bill 32, and the Immigration Cooperation and Enforcement Act, House Bill 83.
The Risch campaign has also tested a message aimed at Achilles. An August polling memo posted on its website said 67% of likely voters surveyed were less likely to back Achilles after hearing a statement that called him a "liberal Democrat" who "claims to be an Independent" and cited his position on women's sports and his past donations to Democratic presidential campaigns.
How early voting works in Idaho
Thirty-eight of Idaho's 44 counties offer early voting this year. The six that do not are Shoshone, Payette, Butte, Boundary, Benewah and Bear Lake. Voters in those counties can request absentee ballots instead.
State law says early voting must close by 5 p.m. on the last Friday before Election Day, which this year is Oct. 30. Early voters must give their name and address and show identification under the state's voter ID law. Anyone who votes early cannot vote again on Election Day.
The deadline to pre-register or request an absentee ballot is 5 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23. Idahoans who miss that deadline can still register in person when they vote early, under the same state rules that allow registration at the polls on Election Day.
In Canyon County, early voting runs through Oct. 30 at the county elections office in Caldwell and at Nampa City Hall, weekdays from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., with Saturday hours at the Caldwell office on Oct. 24. Completed absentee ballots there must be back at the elections office by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3.
Both campaigns have a poll to point to. Only one count gets certified, and Idaho voters are already adding to it.